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Wednesday,
Feb. 4 - "Turbulent
Times... Where are the answers?" - Rob Light, CAA
What
is a disruptive technology?
It is a technology that so goes against the grain of the status quo
as to undermine said status quo, yet the disruptive
technology remains so untested that it is hard to measure.
The premise continues that said companies are so fueled by the need
for growth that they wait to see where the wave will hit before engaging.
Then, of course, they’ve missed the wave. To deal with this
kind of change, Christensen believes that you must deal with small
markets – but small markets don’t solve the needs of large
companies.
In essence, there is no way to forecast what a disruptive technology
will unveil to the market. Markets that don’t now exist cannot
be evaluated, therefore we have to be willing to go and explore, and
attempt (and yes, sometimes fail) to find answers. Unfortunately,
Marc Geiger, Don Muller and Steve Rennie did not succeed with ARTISTdirect
(or, maybe fortunately for me in getting Don), but their vision was
unique and their idea will bear fruit in the future.
Was there any way to evaluate Elvis Presley’s impact on a 45?
Was there any way to understand the impact of The Beatles on “The
Ed Sullivan Show”? Was there any way to elevate what FM radio
would do to the LP? Was there any way to evaluate how a generation
would view MTV?
Twenty years ago, when the CAA music department opened its doors,
was there any way to envision how fax machines, cell phones and the
Internet (which didn’t exist) would change the way we communicate
and do business?
We must allow creatively independent businesses to prosper within
and outside our existing companies, allowing entrepreneurial and innovative
people to run unencumbered, with the ability to fail, in order to
succeed.
We are so rooted in our systems and our way of doing business. Yes,
we try some new promotions, yes we creatively package, but as an industry
we try to lump all of our issues together in a generic blob. Issues
such as ticket prices are too high, the labels don’t stay with
singles, there is no artist development, there are too many CDs, there
are too many shows.
Promoters don’t pay attention to marketing and agents don’t
understand how tough the market is and how small the margins are.
We believe each of our issues and problems within this system are
the most pressing and the only ones that truly need to be dealt with.
We have not stopped to look at our audience, we have not stopped to
look at our delivery systems, we have not stopped to see if our audience
enjoys the concert experience or even the
recorded music experience.
We have not stopped to ask if our audience is where it is or if our
marketing is working. We as an industry have allowed ourselves to
become obsessed with the problems; both small, in our day-to-day getting
the job done and large, in our industry’s failure to aggressively
reinvent.
So, before we try to change the world, let’s address some of
those issues.
As we address these issues, let me say that the numbers and research
I will lay out to you are from a number of sources. Youth Intelligence,
a CAA-owned research firm; AC Neilsen Group that worked on the research
for NACPA; the Jack Myers Report, an Internet research firm and numerous
articles from recent business publications.
First,
let’s discuss demographics.
As an industry we tend to lump our audience into huge groups that
are not always entirely relevant to each other and certainly don’t
look at music or media the same way.
Tweens: Ages eight to 13; not a kid, not yet a teen. They are savvier,
smarter and more opinionated then any tween generation before them.
They are exposed to images, ideas, technology and troubles at much
younger ages.
What their parents did at 16, and their siblings did at 14, they are
doing at 12. And, unless you are planning to retire in the next few
years or you win the lottery, this is the youth audience you will
be marketing to.
What about teens and young adults 14 to 30? Well, therein lies the
problem I mentioned earlier. How do you lump such an incredibly diverse
group together?
Here is how Youth Intelligence breaks these groups down.
When researching the 14- to 30-year-olds, here are some of the interesting
tidbits that came out of their research, and I highlight these as
I don’t want to just bore you with numbers.
Sixty-nine percent said they did not consider downloading songs without
paying to be illegal. Eighty percent said that the venue in which
a concert took place was either somewhat important or very important.
Eighty-six percent said ticket price was somewhat or very important
to deciding on going to a show.
If you had the opportunity to go to the NACPA lunch today, you saw
research by the Neilsen Company
on this same group saying that teens are creatures of habit that rarely
move beyond the “Core Four” activities: movies, TV, video
games and hanging out. Parents are comfortable with the Core Four
because they are safe.
Where is the concert experience? When the same study asked about leisure
time, watching TV, listening
to music, being online, playing video games and talking on the phone
dominated the day.
AC Neilsen notes that they found it interesting that attending a live
concert doesn’t even come into play as an option. This study
is a fascinating look into the teen-age mind and what they think of
the concert experience, which is not much. Looking at these numbers,
we are looking down the barrel of a gun.
We are looking at generations of kids and young adults who don’t
have the passion for the concert experience and are not anxiously
looking to find out. It is not my place to run through the whole report,
but I hope NACPA will share it with everyone at some point as I believe
it will spark great discussion and hopefully some
innovation.
Results from Jack Myers Teen Media Brand Tracker also showed some
incredible findings as it relates to TV. The most important is how
much teen choice changes literally from year to year. Believe it or
not, the number one network for younger teen-age boys 12 to 15 is
the Cartoon Network.
The most powerful brand among younger teen-age girls is Animal Planet,
which just edges out the Disney Channel. Overall for this group, MTV
comes in fourth. Among older teens 15 to 18, Fuse is the number one
choice and MTV comes in third.
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